The plan we are running to and the floor beneath it
This pack leads with the Target Business Plan — the plan the company is being run to. The Base Case sits underneath it as the floor: the eighteen deals in the current book, with no new business development at all. Thirteen carry signed contracts; five do not, though three of those five — Dickens, Riverton and Moorpark — took their CTCAC 4% awards on September 1. Actuals still run January through July 2026 and are unchanged. What has changed since the September 2 pack is the forecast: three deals moved, two people left, and crew is now derived from the deal set rather than typed in, so each plan is staffed only for the jobs it runs. The reconciliation is set out in the appendix.
| Line | July actual | July budget | Variance | YTD actual | YTD budget | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GC total revenue (ex-bonding) | $5,974,606 | $5,523,587 | $451,018 | $27,483,817 | $29,368,064 | ($1,884,247) |
| Bonding revenue (Francis + Riverton bond lines, billed July) | $1,050,990 | — | $1,050,990 | $1,050,990 | — | $1,050,990 |
| GC gross profit | $1,766,650 | $554,252 | $1,212,398 | $4,082,836 | $3,005,239 | $1,077,597 |
| GC overhead | ($321,512) | ($322,315) | $803 | ($2,029,160) | ($2,252,307) | $223,147 |
| GC net income | $1,445,138 | $231,937 | $1,213,201 | $2,053,677 | $752,933 | $1,300,744 |
| Six Peak revenue | $78,115 | $59,474 | $18,641 | $581,802 | $380,693 | $201,109 |
| Six Peak expenses | ($195,563) | ($137,894) | ($57,669) | ($1,489,434) | ($968,369) | ($521,065) |
| Six Peak net income | ($118,383) | ($78,420) | ($39,964) | ($854,925) | ($587,675) | ($267,250) |
| Consolidated net income · entity ledgers | $1,326,755 | $153,517 | $1,173,237 | $1,198,752 | $165,258 | $1,033,494 |
| June non-cash revenue item, reversed in the models (not assumed in the projection) | — | — | — | ($299,000) | — | ($299,000) |
| Consolidated net income · as carried in the models | $1,326,755 | $153,517 | $1,173,237 | $899,752 | $165,258 | $734,494 |
| Line | FY Budget | FY Actual + Projection | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Six Peak · development & management fees | $647,382 | $478,792 | ($168,590) |
| Six Peak · operating expenses | ($1,657,837) | ($2,373,807) | ($715,970) |
| Six Peak net income | ($1,010,455) | ($1,895,016) | ($884,561) |
| LV · fee income (GC-CM + supervision + admin + other) | $5,822,292 | $6,138,000 | $315,708 |
| LV · trade margin, net of deal terms | — | $136,001 | $136,001 |
| LV · bonding program, net | — | ($232,706) | ($232,706) |
| LV gross profit | $5,822,292 | $6,041,295 | $219,003 |
| LV · overhead | ($3,863,882) | ($4,101,040) | ($237,158) |
| GC net income | $1,958,410 | $1,940,255 | ($18,155) |
| Consolidated net income | $947,956 | $45,239 | ($902,717) |
| Measure | September 2 pack | September 9 pack | This pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 consolidated NI · all plans | $229,950 | $167,597 | $45,239 |
| FY 2026 GC net income | $2,124,966 | $2,062,613 | $1,940,255 |
| FY 2026 Six Peak net income | ($1,895,016) | ($1,895,016) | ($1,895,016) |
| FY 2027 consolidated NI · Base Case | $4,415,666 | $4,630,226 | $3,426,573 |
| FY 2027 consolidated NI · Target Business Plan | $4,650,789 | $4,865,349 | $3,661,695 |
| Cumulative NI FY26–33 · Base Case | ($22,839,481) | ($21,864,308) | ($18,571,840) |
| Cumulative NI FY26–33 · Target Business Plan | $22,183,983 | $23,109,913 | $19,094,099 |
| FY 2026 total ending cash | $1,971,861 | $2,286,683 | $2,164,325 |
| Base Case cash turns negative | Q1 2031 | Q2 2031 | Q1 2031 |
Three of the four levers in the June pack are now inside the Base Case. What remains outside it is the Uplifters programme and the business-development pipeline.
Eighteen deals · $337.7M
Now including Klump & Scott (January 2027), the HVN 3 trio of Dickens, Riverton and Moorpark (May to July 2027), Troost (January 2027) and Beverly (November 2027). Five of the eighteen, $85.3M, are expected awards rather than signed contracts — see Section 06.
Uplifters Foundation
60-property development-fee programme led by Schuyler Dietz, now beginning April 2027. No capital required. Adds $4.10M of net to Six Peak over its life.
BD pipeline
Third-party GC pipeline led by Tom Taggart under partner oversight. In the Target Business Plan, 23 signings from March 2028, $372.0M aggregate GMP.
Reseda funding
$45.3M GMP starting May 2027 and still not funded. It is the largest single contributor to FY 2027 and the biggest gating item in the year. If financing slips, revenue, GC net income and ending cash all step down materially.
Seven modeled plans · outcomes at a glance
Each plan is a fully-built Excel model with actuals through July 2026 carried line for line, schedule-driven billing on the active jobs, and the LV deal terms applied. The metrics on every card are cumulative across the FY2026–FY2033 horizon. Files are date-stamped September 10, 2026. The eleven plans in the June pack were consolidated into these seven when the base case was redefined; the retired workbooks remain archived in the projections directory.
Target Business Plan vs. the floor vs. Uplifters alone
The three plans that frame the decision. All are identical in FY 2026 and differ only from FY 2027 onward, because the committed book is already set for this year. Klump & Scott no longer appear as a separate plan: they are inside all three.
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $8,222,310 | $8,925,056 |
| Base Case | $45,239 | $3,426,573 | $4,970,856 | ($1,950,277) |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $6,611,739 | ($618,583) |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $10,131,612 | $18,906,954 |
| Base Case | $2,164,325 | $3,117,338 | $7,370,994 | $6,477,320 |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $9,246,998 | $9,685,019 |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $47,025,581 | $97,827,288 | $128,849,128 | $140,840,527 |
| Base Case | $47,025,581 | $97,827,288 | $112,843,463 | $34,576,576 |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $47,025,581 | $97,827,288 | $112,843,463 | $34,576,576 |
60 properties · $4.10M net to Six Peak · no construction risk
Six Peak can run the Uplifters Foundation development programme: 60 single-family residential properties generating fee revenue from acquisition, development management, leasing and exit over five years. Six Peak does not perform the construction; it earns a 10% overhead fee plus a share of net income.
The programme moved out one quarter this cycle, from a January 2027 start to Apr 2027. The whole programme shifted together — fee revenue, staffing, operating costs, the four acquisition phases and the tiered profit-share boundaries — so the economics are unchanged and only the timing moved.
| Line item | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 | FY 2031 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Fee Revenue | $560,818 | $3,251,765 | $2,911,624 | $1,523,049 | $762,409 | $9,009,665 |
| Staffing Cost | ($120,836) | ($366,676) | ($450,012) | ($450,012) | ($112,503) | ($1,500,039) |
| Other OpEx | ($85,500) | ($114,000) | ($114,000) | ($114,000) | ($28,500) | ($456,000) |
| Net Fee Income | $354,482 | $2,771,089 | $2,347,612 | $959,037 | $621,406 | $7,053,626 |
| SP Overhead Fee | $56,082 | $150,000 | $149,031 | $140,675 | $67,405 | $563,193 |
| Net Before Bonus | $298,400 | $2,621,089 | $2,198,581 | $818,361 | $554,001 | $6,490,433 |
| Schuyler Bonus | $119,360 | $1,130,207 | $1,015,918 | $409,181 | $277,001 | $2,951,666 |
| Total to Six Peak | $235,122 | $1,640,883 | $1,331,694 | $549,856 | $344,405 | $4,101,960 |
The pipeline that replaces the book · 23 signings · $372.0M
The BD plans model Tom Taggart’s third-party GC pipeline, sourced and closed under partner oversight from Chris Aiello and Bob Kennedy. Each deal targets LA multifamily at roughly $15–18M GMP. The HVN-flagged deals in the pipeline are bonded at the tier 2 rate of 3.25%, against bonding revenue of 1.5%, so each one carries a net 1.75% of GMP in its first month. The remaining pipeline deals are unbonded.
The deal counts moved this cycle. The base case now uses five of the former BD placeholder slots for real named deals — Dickens, Riverton, Moorpark, Beverly and Troost — so the extended plan carries 25 placeholders rather than the 27 shown in June. No capacity was lost: those five are simply named projects now instead of anonymous ones.
| Plan | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 | FY32 | FY33 | Cum. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $0.05M | $3.43M | $4.97M | ($1.95M) | ($5.05M) | ($7.05M) | ($7.02M) | ($5.95M) | ($18.57M) |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $0.05M | $3.66M | $6.61M | ($0.62M) | ($4.50M) | ($6.70M) | ($7.02M) | ($5.95M) | ($14.47M) |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $0.05M | $3.43M | $5.20M | $1.03M | $0.25M | $0.13M | $0.02M | $0.18M | $10.30M |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $0.05M | $3.66M | $6.85M | $2.36M | $0.80M | $0.48M | $0.02M | $0.18M | $14.40M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $0.05M | $3.43M | $5.20M | $1.53M | $3.21M | $2.53M | $2.77M | $1.52M | $20.23M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $0.05M | $3.66M | $6.85M | $2.87M | $3.76M | $2.87M | $2.77M | $1.52M | $24.33M |
| Target Business Plan | $0.05M | $3.66M | $8.22M | $8.93M | $6.99M | $2.51M | ($5.31M) | ($5.95M) | $19.09M |
FY2034 is a wind-down tail beyond the pipeline and is excluded from the cumulative column. Breakeven BD sizes the pipeline so consolidated NI stays close to zero each year rather than to grow.
Target Business Plan
$372.0M aggregate GMP · Apr 2029 through Sep 2030. Average deal size $16.17M.
Extended BD
$402.0M aggregate GMP · Apr 2029 through Sep 2032. Average deal size $16.08M.
Breakeven BD
$279.0M aggregate GMP · Apr 2029 through Sep 2032. Average deal size $16.41M.
Why the cadence matters
The committed book runs through FY 2028. The difference between signing from Apr 2029 and signing from Apr 2029 is the difference between consolidated NI in the $11.8M range and NI hovering near zero.
Eighteen deals · $337.7M of contract value
Every deal in the table is inside the Base Case. That is the change from the June pack, where Klump, Scott and the HVN trio carried a “pending, in X plans” status. Since the June pack six deals moved later and two are new; this cycle Lexington moved one month, August to September 2026. Nothing moved earlier.
Five of the eighteen, $85.3M of the $337.7M book, are not yet signed. Dickens, Riverton, Moorpark and Beverly are expected awards but nothing is executed. Troost has been verbally awarded, subject to its investor approving the project, which we believe will come. They are in the plan because we expect to win them; the sensitivity below is what the plan looks like if we do not.
| Project | GMP | Type | Start | End | Change this cycle | Award status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Califa | $11,929,880 | 3rd Party GC | Apr 2026 | Jun 2027 | Signed | |
| Crenshaw | $7,126,075 | GC + Developer | Apr 2026 | Nov 2026 | Signed | |
| Nelrose | $3,623,245 | 3rd Party GC | Apr 2026 | Oct 2027 | Signed | |
| Ramsgate | $20,176,449 | GC + Developer | Apr 2026 | Jul 2027 | Signed | |
| Whipple | $14,427,884 | 3rd Party GC | Apr 2026 | Jun 2027 | Signed | |
| Denny | $14,337,011 | 3rd Party GC | Aug 2026 | Jan 2029 | Signed | |
| Francis | $42,794,765 | GC + Developer | Aug 2026 | Jan 2029 | Signed | |
| Lexington | $12,993,776 | 3rd Party GC | Sep 2026 | Mar 2028 | Signed | |
| Acama | $21,263,405 | 3rd Party GC | Dec 2026 | Nov 2028 | Moved from Nov 2026 | Signed |
| Klump | $9,577,109 | GC + Developer | Feb 2027 | Aug 2028 | Moved from Jan 2027 | Signed |
| Scott | $7,545,203 | GC + Developer | Jan 2027 | Jul 2028 | Signed | |
| Troost (HVN) | $15,189,509 | 3rd Party GC | Jan 2027 | Jul 2028 | Verbal award · investor approval pending | |
| Dickens | $15,316,015 | GC + Developer | May 2027 | Nov 2028 | CTCAC 4% award | Awarded 9/1/26 · GMP not signed |
| Reseda | $45,266,770 | GC + Developer | Apr 2027 | Sep 2029 | Moved from May 2027 | Signed |
| Riverton | $11,317,385 | GC + Developer | Jun 2027 | Dec 2028 | CTCAC 4% award | Awarded 9/1/26 · GMP not signed |
| Moorpark | $18,442,769 | GC + Developer | Jul 2027 | Jan 2029 | CTCAC 4% award | Awarded 9/1/26 · GMP not signed |
| Beverly (BD-04) | $25,026,331 | 3rd Party GC | Nov 2027 | Oct 2029 | Likely award · not signed | |
| 3rd St | $41,354,632 | GC + Developer | Jun 2028 | Nov 2030 | Signed |
GMP values reflect remaining contract balances from the June draw sheets. Crenshaw, Ramsgate, Califa, Whipple and Nelrose are under construction. Francis closed on August 13, 2026 and construction started in August; its first pay application, mostly the bond line, is already in the July ledger.
Computed by switching Dickens, Riverton, Moorpark, Beverly and Troost off in the live models and recalculating. Everything else held constant.
| Measure | As modeled | Signed deals only | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case · FY 2027 net income | $3,426,573 | $2,291,114 | ($1,135,460) |
| Base Case · FY 2028 net income | $4,970,856 | $980,371 | ($3,990,486) |
| Base Case · cumulative NI FY26–33 | ($18,571,840) | ($24,624,722) | ($6,052,882) |
| Target Plan · FY 2028 net income | $8,222,310 | $4,415,498 | ($3,806,812) |
| Target Plan · cumulative NI FY26–33 | $19,094,099 | $13,613,949 | ($5,480,150) |
| Construction billing · FY 2028 | $112.8M | $64.7M | ($48.2M) |
$1.5M Steyn loan · a pro forma path to full repayment by June 2028
A $1.5M principal-balance loan carrying ~$176K of accrued interest at the June close (June 2026 balance: $1,676,066). It accrues at a 15% annual rate (3.75% quarterly). The schedule below is a pro forma, not a commitment: with the construction book still ramping, we need to be careful with cash flow, and we need this facility to stay flexible. On the current model, full repayment looks achievable with payments beginning January 2027, shown as 18 illustrative $112K monthly installments to a full payoff by June 2028. Timing and amounts will flex with actual cash; the 15% rate keeps Steyn well compensated while the balance is outstanding.
| Month | Beginning Balance | Interest Accrual | Payment | Ending Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2026 | $1,615,485 | — | — | $1,615,485 |
| May 2026 | $1,615,485 | — | — | $1,615,485 |
| Jun 2026 | $1,615,485 | $60,581 | — | $1,676,066 |
| Jul 2026 | $1,676,066 | — | — | $1,676,066 |
| Aug 2026 | $1,676,066 | — | — | $1,676,066 |
| Sep 2026 | $1,676,066 | $62,852 | — | $1,738,918 |
| Oct 2026 | $1,738,918 | — | — | $1,738,918 |
| Nov 2026 | $1,738,918 | — | — | $1,738,918 |
| FY 2026 ends · $1,804,128 outstanding · no payments in 2026 (interest-only) | ||||
| Dec 2026 | $1,738,918 | $65,209 | — | $1,804,128 |
| Jan 2027 · 1st payment | $1,804,128 | — | ($112,000) | $1,692,128 |
| Feb 2027 | $1,692,128 | — | ($112,000) | $1,580,128 |
| Mar 2027 | $1,580,128 | $59,255 | ($112,000) | $1,527,382 |
| Apr 2027 | $1,527,382 | — | ($112,000) | $1,415,382 |
| May 2027 | $1,415,382 | — | ($112,000) | $1,303,382 |
| Jun 2027 | $1,303,382 | $48,877 | ($112,000) | $1,240,259 |
| Jul 2027 | $1,240,259 | — | ($112,000) | $1,128,259 |
| Aug 2027 | $1,128,259 | — | ($112,000) | $1,016,259 |
| Sep 2027 | $1,016,259 | $38,110 | ($112,000) | $942,369 |
| Oct 2027 | $942,369 | — | ($112,000) | $830,369 |
| Nov 2027 | $830,369 | — | ($112,000) | $718,369 |
| FY 2027 ends · $633,308 outstanding | ||||
| Dec 2027 | $718,369 | $26,939 | ($112,000) | $633,308 |
| Jan 2028 | $633,308 | — | ($112,000) | $521,308 |
| Feb 2028 | $521,308 | — | ($112,000) | $409,308 |
| Mar 2028 | $409,308 | $15,349 | ($112,000) | $312,657 |
| Apr 2028 | $312,657 | — | ($112,000) | $200,657 |
| May 2028 | $200,657 | — | ($112,000) | $88,657 |
| Jun 2028 · payoff | $88,657 | $3,325 | ($91,981) | $0 |
| Total · 18 payments | — | $495,981 interest | ($1,995,981) | $0 |
Appendix & supporting detail
Drill-down tables behind the headline numbers, across all seven plans. All figures read directly from the live models, actuals through July 31 2026, assumptions as of September 10 2026.
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $8,222,310 | $8,925,056 | $6,989,096 |
| Base Case | $45,239 | $3,426,573 | $4,970,856 | ($1,950,277) | ($5,045,159) |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $6,611,739 | ($618,583) | ($4,495,303) |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $45,239 | $3,426,573 | $5,204,236 | $1,033,152 | $251,998 |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $6,845,119 | $2,364,846 | $801,854 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $45,239 | $3,426,573 | $5,204,236 | $1,533,379 | $3,205,156 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $45,239 | $3,661,695 | $6,845,119 | $2,865,073 | $3,755,011 |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $10,131,612 | $18,906,954 | $26,235,202 |
| Base Case | $2,164,325 | $3,117,338 | $7,370,994 | $6,477,320 | $1,739,598 |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $9,246,998 | $9,685,019 | $5,497,152 |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $2,164,325 | $3,117,338 | $7,500,536 | $9,093,680 | $9,313,723 |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $9,376,541 | $12,301,378 | $13,071,278 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $2,164,325 | $3,117,338 | $7,500,536 | $9,364,561 | $12,147,696 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $2,164,325 | $3,352,460 | $9,376,541 | $12,572,260 | $15,905,251 |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $8,494,235 | $9,929,471 | $8,820,871 |
| Base Case | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $6,883,664 | $385,831 | ($2,663,528) |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $6,883,664 | $385,831 | ($2,663,528) |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $7,117,044 | $3,369,261 | $2,633,629 |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $7,117,044 | $3,369,261 | $2,633,629 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $7,117,044 | $3,869,487 | $5,586,786 |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $1,940,255 | $4,849,350 | $7,117,044 | $3,869,487 | $5,586,786 |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | ($1,895,016) | ($1,187,654) | ($271,925) | ($1,004,415) | ($1,831,775) |
| Base Case | ($1,895,016) | ($1,422,776) | ($1,912,808) | ($2,336,109) | ($2,381,631) |
| Base Case + Uplifters | ($1,895,016) | ($1,187,654) | ($271,925) | ($1,004,415) | ($1,831,775) |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | ($1,895,016) | ($1,422,776) | ($1,912,808) | ($2,336,109) | ($2,381,631) |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | ($1,895,016) | ($1,187,654) | ($271,925) | ($1,004,415) | ($1,831,775) |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | ($1,895,016) | ($1,422,776) | ($1,912,808) | ($2,336,109) | ($2,381,631) |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | ($1,895,016) | ($1,187,654) | ($271,925) | ($1,004,415) | ($1,831,775) |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $47.0M | $97.8M | $128.8M | $140.8M | $119.4M |
| Base Case | $47.0M | $97.8M | $112.8M | $34.6M | $11.3M |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $47.0M | $97.8M | $112.8M | $34.6M | $11.3M |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $47.0M | $97.8M | $114.1M | $65.3M | $50.8M |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $47.0M | $97.8M | $114.1M | $65.3M | $50.8M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $47.0M | $97.8M | $114.1M | $68.2M | $87.4M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $47.0M | $97.8M | $114.1M | $68.2M | $87.4M |
| Plan | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | FY 2028 | FY 2029 | FY 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Business Plan | $93.8M | $101.4M | $62.8M | $27.2M | $23.2M |
| Base Case | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $13.3M | $0.0M |
| Base Case + Uplifters | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $13.3M | $0.0M |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $18.1M | $0.0M |
| Base + LV BD (breakeven) + Uplifters | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $18.1M | $0.0M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $18.1M | $4.8M |
| Base + LV BD (extended) + Uplifters | $93.8M | $101.4M | $48.7M | $18.1M | $4.8M |
Steyn debt facility
$1.5M loan, 15% annual (3.75% quarterly). Pro forma repayment schedule, flexible and subject to change with actual cash flow: 18 payments of $112K a month from January 2027, fully repaid June 2028. Full month-by-month schedule in Section 07. Carried forward unchanged through the August model rebuild.
What changed since the June actuals (the August 23 pack, actuals through June 30) — folded through September 10
| Measure | June-actuals pack (Aug 23) | This pack (Sep 10) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 consolidated NI · all plans | $428,776 | $45,239 | ($383,537) |
| FY 2026 GC net income | $1,388,113 | $1,940,255 | $552,142 |
| FY 2026 Six Peak net income | ($959,337) | ($1,895,016) | ($935,679) |
| FY 2027 consolidated NI · Base Case | $3,334,020 | $3,426,573 | $92,553 |
| FY 2027 consolidated NI · Target Business Plan | $3,569,142 | $3,661,695 | $92,553 |
| Cumulative NI FY26–33 · Base Case | ($23,425,226) | ($18,571,840) | $4,853,386 |
| Cumulative NI FY26–33 · Target Business Plan | $21,961,579 | $19,094,099 | ($2,867,480) |
| FY 2026 total ending cash | $1,231,610 | $2,164,325 | $932,715 |
| Base Case cash turns negative | Q4 2030 | Q1 2031 | one quarter later |
The book. The base case was redefined from eleven in-place deals to eighteen — Klump & Scott and Troost (January 2027), the HVN 3 trio of Dickens, Riverton and Moorpark (May–July 2027) and Beverly (November 2027) came inside — six deals moved later, Lexington moved to a September 2026 start, the Uplifters programme moved to April 2027, and Francis closed on August 13, 2026 and is under construction.
Actuals. July 2026 closed and every model now carries the closed months at the entity ledgers line for line; the cash build opens August 1 on the July 31 bank balances, receivables and payables. The only deliberate difference between the models and the ledgers is the $299,000 June non-cash revenue item, which stays in the actuals but is reversed out of projected net income.
Forecast method. The billing curve was replaced with schedule-driven forecasts on the five jobs under construction — Nelrose, Ramsgate, Califa, Whipple and Francis bill and cost off their July 28 construction schedules from August 2026 forward (Crenshaw finishes on the curve). This corrected margin the curve was suppressing on Califa and Whipple and moved roughly $0.8M of FY 2026 fee income into FY 2027 with the slower schedules.
LV deal terms. A Deal Terms input tab now enforces the LV economics beneath the trade lines: on LIHTC pass-through jobs trade cost nets to zero over each job’s life — LV’s revenue is the 12.04% fee stack — and the shared-savings jobs book LV’s 50% of buyout savings when earned: Crenshaw $150,000 in December 2026, Ramsgate $358,268 in October 2027.
Bonding program. Bonding revenue is now split out of trade billing onto its own line, identified by each job’s Bonding cost code. The July-billed Francis ($839,113) and Riverton ($211,877) bond lines are counted once, in July; August carries the program costs (the $314K Francis surety premium and the ~$694K due to Krueger as the bond lines fund). A brief double count of those bond lines in the September 1 pack was found and corrected on September 2 — the reconciliation on the Executive Summary states it plainly.
The office. The New York office closes December 1, 2026; from December Six Peak’s only rent is $5,000 a month for its share of the LV office (was $8,500 a month plus escalation) — roughly $44,000 a year of savings from 2027.
Deal-terms timing and cash (September 2, PM). Two mechanical fixes from Erik Andresen’s review of the deal-terms build. Denny’s $103,966 surety premium, paid in July and already inside July closed job cost, is no longer re-charged on the August bonding-cost line (+$104K FY 2026, and the standing rule now keeps bonding costs on the bonding line, out of trade cost). Shared buyout savings are recognised at each job’s completion month rather than ratably — lifetime totals unchanged, which moves Ramsgate’s strip (+$114K) from FY 2026 into FY 2027. And the cash build now adds back the deal-terms accruals as non-cash until they settle, worth $311K of FY 2026 ending cash. Net: FY 2026 $229,950 → $229,950, FY 2027 +$113,522, cumulative +$103,966. The ~$525K Francis bond-spread question stays open, on its own line, outside these fixes.
Deal timing and departures (September 9). Acama moved one month later to a December 2026 start, Klump moved to February 2027 so it staggers one month behind Scott, and Reseda was pulled forward to April 2027; the Reseda deal distribution moved with it. Lucy Mohler and Alex Gottlieb left the company on July 31 and come off the payroll from August; the Acama superintendent went on payroll September 1, three months ahead of his job; and one additional assistant superintendent was added from November 2026. Together these take FY 2026 from $229,950 to $167,597 — Acama’s slip costs about $75,000 of it, because its surety premium now lands in December while a month of Acama revenue drops out of the year, and the personnel changes give roughly $13,000 back.
Staffing follows the deal set (September 10). Planned hires used to be typed into the personnel tab, which meant every plan carried the same crew no matter how many jobs it ran: eight jobs and sixteen jobs cost the same to staff, and a scenario that switched a job off kept paying its superintendent. Crew is now derived — one superintendent per active job, project managers and assistant project managers by job size, hired when a job is confirmed and released when the work runs out. Payroll now differs between the plans for the first time: the sixteen-job plans carry about $939,000 a year more in 2027, and the no-new-work cases about $493,000 a year less. FY 2026 moves from $167,597 to $45,239 and FY 2027 Base Case from $4.63M to $3.43M. The same correction makes the awards-off sensitivity below less severe than it was, because the crew for those jobs is no longer paid for in a world where the jobs do not exist.
Conservatism and the entity split. APA LLP income is reserved — nothing in 2026, 40% of Six Peak’s share from January 2027, floored at zero from January 2028. The $103,833-a-month Six Peak overhead allocation to LV was set to zero in the projection (it has never been booked in either ledger; the mechanism remains), which moves income from Six Peak to LV without changing consolidated much. The LV-to-Six-Peak liquidating distribution, a non-cash item, was removed from the cash build. Twelve model defects were fixed on August 23; the defect register is filed with the models, and every workbook’s comparison tabs now open with the full-year summary against the November 2025 budget.
Net of it all: FY 2026 is $199K lower than the June-actuals pack — the July close and the margin correction added, and the fee re-timing, the APA reserve, the non-cash reversal and carrying the bonding program at its real cost took more out — while FY 2027 is $1.1M higher and Base Case cash lasts one quarter longer.
APA LLP
The Adam Polk architecture partnership turns cash-negative from January 2028 in the underlying projection. The consolidated model now floors Six Peak’s 50% share at zero from that point, on the basis that the partnership would be wound down or replaced rather than run at a loss. The underlying detail still shows the deficit.